Aukus: A Policy of Optimism or Naivety?
The Aukus agreement, a $368 billion nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the US, and the UK, has sparked intense debate and skepticism from former Foreign Affairs Minister Gareth Evans. Evans, who served in the Hawke and Keating governments, warns that Aukus is one of Australia's worst foreign policy decisions, requiring 'heroic' optimism to believe it will succeed.
In a scathing critique, Evans highlights the potential futility of the agreement. He argues that the US is unlikely to come to Australia's aid in the event of an 'existential attack', and would only assist if its own assets are threatened. Evans dismisses the notion of extended nuclear deterrence, calling it a 'ludicrous delusion'.
The former minister also casts doubt on the feasibility of the deal. He points out construction delays and shortages for the US fleet, suggesting that the delivery of Virginia-class submarines from the US is unlikely. Evans also warns that the joint construction of new-design SSN-Aukus attack submarines by the UK and Australia is extremely challenging, given the UK's strained defense-industrial base.
Evans further criticizes the government's price tag as 'wholly speculative', suggesting that the US views the submarines as supplementary assets primarily for finding, tracking, and destroying Chinese submarines. He argues that the deal is a 'doubling down' on Australia's commitment to the US alliance, potentially painting Australia as a target in military conflicts.
The public inquiry into Aukus, led by commissioners including Peter Garrett and Chris Barrie, reflects the skepticism surrounding the agreement. Nuclear non-proliferation campaigners and retired diplomats have also expressed doubts. The inquiry's commissioners are expected to hold public hearings and deliver a report in October.
Despite the criticism, Foreign Minister Penny Wong remains optimistic. She emphasizes the importance of the submarine capability in assuring Australian sovereignty in a contested world. However, the challenges and skepticism surrounding Aukus persist, leaving many questioning the wisdom of this costly and ambitious defense policy.
